The Scale Of Change Has Just Got Bigger
The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated a series of shifts in how its citizens work and play and Wellington’s emerging economic future. As Wellington looks to continue to respond to the economic, health and environmental realities of COVID-19, the future has never been more uncertain or the decisions required to shape it, more urgent.
A Vision Of The Future Could Be
A post COVID-19 City that positions Wellington as a leading GDP contributor to the New Zealand economy the fabric for a prosperous capital city. This vision will reset the narrative, change mindsets, inspire action.
2020 has seen the change in ability and policy to work from home due to COVID-19 and after lockdown many have continued to do so.
Fixed to Flexible
2020 has seen the change in ability and policy to work from home due to COVID-19 and after lockdown many have continued to do so. This change in the way we live and work has lead to a shift towards humming suburbs, but also changed the way our CBD performs.
As this trend progresses and combines with the shift to new technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) enhanced services our economic relationship with the cities around us will enliven regions like Hawkes Bay and Wanganui and equally it could result in a hollowing of the metropolitan economy. The challenge for cities is reimagining their relationship with the hinterland.
SHIFT: Fixed to Flexible
Summary
During the second quarter of 2020 many New Zealanders had the opportunity of working from home and many have continued to do so – overnight Wellington had 100,000 mixed use buildings. The way we spend our time, work and live have changed in both time and space leading to shifts towards local centres, but also changed the way our CBD performs.
As this trend progresses and combines with the shift to experience we can expect it to transform to work from anywhere – this changes the attributes people look for in homes, the relationship between Wellington and cities like Napier and New Plymouth and the way our infrastructure fits into people’s lives.
This shift offers new opportunities – it could reduce critical office space shortages, and develop provinces in the Lower North Island that benefit the cities’ economy, but equally it could lead to a hollowing out of our CBD and further housing unaffordability as homes become economically valuable as workplaces and those without suitable accommodation can’t work from home.
Drivers:
Digital Transformation – Digital infrastructure and ubiquitous connection is enabling people to work anywhere using increasingly immersive tools to connect in teams.
Ethics and Public Awareness – people are recognising the value of lifestyles, family time and often structuring careers and living locations to maximise these other opportunities.
Demographic Change – people are working longer and careers are becoming more varied and nimble driving more diverse ways of working and working locations.
Future of Work – Companies are moving from competitive to collaborative models.
COVID19
COVID19 has forced spaces to become more flexible as movement patterns and business models have changed. The most immediate effect of this has been the mass experience of converting of residential space into working space.
There has also been enforced trials of working from anywhere as staff from overseas were unable to return to New Zealand. This change in distribution of workers has driven a pivot in the commercial property market away from floorspace being allocated to lone-task working and towards collaborative space.
This has also driven a wave of sublet commercial space as office lease holders shrink their footprint. This shrinkage has been compensated for in the residential market, with three- and four-bedroom housing units increasing faster in value than smaller unity.
These changes in space have lead to changes in time, with more people now having experience of asynchronies working, or with flexible hours. As the pandemic has progressed these experiences have persisted, with daytime populations in Wellington CBD remaining approximately 20% down on pre pandemic levels as people continue to work from elsewhere.
Just as COVID drove a flexibility in the way people use time and space, it also showed fixed lifestyle patterns, with higher deprivation communities continuing to move about in much the same way throughout the lockdown period.
Overseas the fixed nature of tasks like cleaning or delivery is accelerating automation of these services, in part to ensure resilience against further pandemic-based disruption but reducing employment opportunities.
Sightings:
Global
Google, Microsoft and other global companies have said that their employees will work from home until at least 2021, with no expectation of a mass return to the office at the end of this period.
Many large companies have allowed and incentivised working from anywhere, with workers being paid to leave high cost locations such as Silicon Valley, San Francisco or Los Angeles for smaller cities and Zoom Towns such as Sacramento or Louisville
Smart Offices are allowing optimisation of space use by businesses and allowing them to share and sublet space for other uses- mixing together cafes, co-working spaces, community spaces and offices.
Neighborhoods are being designed with flexible rather than mixed uses- the spaces are flexible and uses separated by time, rather than the more traditional distance- these multifunctional spaces combine with apps to function effectively.
Public Transport volumes continue to decline globally as motor traffic volumes rise – but not as much- people are looking to move less but in privacy when they do.
National
Some companies have removed central city offices, instead opting for smaller collaborative spaces in more fringe and suburban locations.
Use of apps such as VLife and Staysafe by companies to enable home, mobile and lone working is working with cloud technologies and UFB to free workers to work anywhere.
Areas such as West Coast, Kapiti and Bay of Plenty have registered double digit increases in real estate buyer enquiries as people have sought to relocate and work from anywhere.
Educational models have changed to allow for online learning, both in the formal educational sphere and in the more informal professional development sphere through e-learning subscription services.
Wellington
Wellington City Council has virtualised its library cards, provided access to e-learning platforms and removed fees to make a more flexible network which can deliver to people as locational demand shifts.
AMP has closed its Wellington Office and moved to a work from home and suburban hub model.
The Government has announced a series of regional hubs to deconcentrate public service agencies from Wellington and Auckland CBDs.
